Introduction
A new report from Black Kite has dropped a stark warning for the European cybersecurity landscape: encryption-based cyber incidents have surged by over 50% in the past year. For those of us in the trenches, this isn't just a statistic; it's a signal of a shifting battlefield. The report highlights that attackers are increasingly leveraging supply chain vectors to deliver these payloads, bypassing traditional perimeter defenses by compromising trusted relationships.
As we navigate 2026, this trend indicates that threat actors are maturing their operations, moving from opportunistic scattering to highly targeted, encryption-heavy assaults designed to maximize business disruption. Defenders cannot rely on legacy antivirus alone; we must pivot to detecting the behavioral precursors of encryption and rigorously auditing our supply chain access.
Technical Analysis
While the report aggregates data across various sectors, the core mechanics of this surge involve two distinct but intersecting kill chains:
-
The Supply Chain Vector: Attackers are compromising managed service providers (MSPs), software vendors, or critical third-party utilities with privileged access. By poisoning the update mechanism of legitimate software, they gain an initial foothold within the target environment without triggering standard phishing alerts.
-
Encryption-Based Payloads (Ransomware 2.0): Once inside, the objective is rapid encryption. Modern encryption attacks in 2026 often target local and cloud storage simultaneously. They frequently utilize the operating system's own native encryption tools (like
cipher.exeor BitLocker viamanage-bde) or custom implementations to lock data, making detection purely based on malware signatures ineffective.
The Threat Landscape:
- Affected Platforms: Windows Server environments (dominant in enterprise), hybrid cloud storage (AWS/Azure blobs), and SaaS backup repositories.
- Attack Vector: Software Supply Chain Compromise (SolarWinds-style or CI/CD pipeline poisoning) leading to deployment of encryption tools.
- Exploitation Status: Active. The 50% rise confirms widespread exploitation of trust boundaries rather than just software vulnerabilities.
Detection & Response
Detecting a supply-chain driven encryption attack requires identifying anomalies in process lineage and file system behavior. We need to catch the attack before the encryption process completes or immediately upon the deletion of shadow copies.
Sigma Rules
These rules target the precursors to encryption (Shadow Copy deletion) and suspicious usage of native encryption tools often abused in these campaigns.
---
title: Potential Ransomware Activity - Volume Shadow Copy Deletion
id: 3a1b2c3d-4e5f-6a7b-8c9d-0e1f2a3b4c5d
status: experimental
description: Detects attempts to delete Volume Shadow Copies, a common precursor to ransomware encryption to prevent recovery.
references:
- https://attack.mitre.org/techniques/T1490/
author: Security Arsenal
date: 2026/04/06
tags:
- attack.impact
- attack.t1490
logsource:
category: process_creation
product: windows
detection:
selection:
Image|endswith:
- '\vssadmin.exe'
- '\wmic.exe'
CommandLine|contains:
- 'delete shadows'
- 'shadowstorage delete'
condition: selection
falsepositives:
- System administrators manually managing disk space (rare)
level: high
---
title: Suspicious Use of Native Encryption Tools
id: 4b2c3d4e-5f6a-7b8c-9d0e-1f2a3b4c5d6e
status: experimental
description: Detects the use of cipher.exe or manage-bde in a manner consistent with data wiping or encryption attacks.
references:
- https://attack.mitre.org/techniques/T1486/
author: Security Arsenal
date: 2026/04/06
tags:
- attack.impact
- attack.t1486
logsource:
category: process_creation
product: windows
detection:
selection_cipher:
Image|endswith: '\cipher.exe'
CommandLine|contains: '/w'
selection_bitlocker:
Image|endswith: '\manage-bde.exe'
CommandLine|contains: '-lock'
condition: 1 of selection*
falsepositives:
- Legitimate drive maintenance or encryption setups
level: medium
---
title: Suspicious Child Process of Supply Chain Updater
id: 5c3d4e5f-6a7b-8c9d-0e1f-2a3b4c5d6e7f
status: experimental
description: Detects common updater spawning a shell, often indicative of supply chain compromise where the update mechanism is weaponized.
references:
- https://attack.mitre.org/techniques/T1195/
author: Security Arsenal
date: 2026/04/06
tags:
- attack.initial_access
- attack.t1195
logsource:
category: process_creation
product: windows
detection:
selection:
ParentImage|contains:
- '\update.exe'
- '\updater.exe'
- '\agent.exe'
Image|endswith:
- '\powershell.exe'
- '\cmd.exe'
- '\wscript.exe'
condition: selection
falsepositives:
- Legitimate software updates utilizing scripts
level: medium
KQL (Microsoft Sentinel)
This hunt query looks for the "burst" activity often associated with mass encryption attempts on file servers, correlated with the process execution.
// Hunt for mass encryption events or file modifications correlated with suspicious processes
let FileEncryptionThreshold = 1000; // Threshold for file modifications in 1 minute
DeviceProcessEvents
| where Timestamp > ago(24h)
| where ProcessName in~ ('cipher.exe', 'manage-bde.exe', 'vssadmin.exe')
or CommandLine has_any ('delete shadows', '/w', '-lock', '-encrypt')
| join kind=inner (
DeviceFileEvents
| where Timestamp > ago(24h)
| summarize Count = count() by DeviceId, bin(Timestamp, 1m)
| where Count > FileEncryptionThreshold
) on DeviceId
| project Timestamp, DeviceName, FileName, ProcessCommandLine, InitiatingProcessAccountName, ActionType
| extend AlertDetails = "High volume of file modifications detected coinciding with encryption utility execution."
Velociraptor VQL
Use this artifact to hunt for processes that are rapidly accessing user profile directories—a strong indicator of encryption activity in progress.
-- Hunt for processes accessing user directories rapidly (Encryption behavior)
SELECT
Pid,
Name,
CommandLine,
Username,
StartTime
FROM pslist()
WHERE Name =~ 'cipher.exe'
OR Name =~ 'manage-bde.exe'
OR Name =~ 'vssadmin.exe'
-- Complementary check: Look for handles open to many files in user profiles (potential bulk encryption)
-- Note: This requires the handles() artifact which can be noisy, use selectively.
-- SELECT Pid, Name, count(Handle) as HandleCount FROM handles() WHERE Name =~ '*.doc*' OR Name =~ '*.pdf*' GROUP BY Pid, Name HAVING HandleCount > 50
Remediation Script
This PowerShell script assists IR teams by checking the status of Volume Shadow Copies (essential for recovery) and identifying if common ransomware precursor processes are currently running.
# Security Arsenal - Ransomware Readiness Check
# Checks for VSS Status and Suspicious Processes
Write-Host "[+] Starting Ransomware Environment Check..." -ForegroundColor Cyan
# 1. Check Volume Shadow Copy Storage Status
Write-Host "\n[+] Checking Volume Shadow Copy (VSS) Status..." -ForegroundColor Yellow
try {
$vss = vssadmin list shadows
if ($vss -match "No shadow copies found") {
Write-Host "[!] WARNING: No Shadow Copies found. Recovery may be impossible if encryption occurs." -ForegroundColor Red
} else {
Write-Host "[+] Shadow Copies exist." -ForegroundColor Green
Write-Host $vss
}
} catch {
Write-Host "[!] Error checking VSS: $_" -ForegroundColor Red
}
# 2. Check for Suspicious Active Processes
Write-Host "\n[+] Scanning for high-risk processes..." -ForegroundColor Yellow
$riskProcesses = @("cipher.exe", "vssadmin.exe", "manage-bde.exe", "wbadmin.exe")
$found = $false
foreach ($proc in Get-Process | Where-Object { $riskProcesses -contains $_.ProcessName }) {
Write-Host "[!] ALERT: Suspicious process found - PID: $($proc.Id), Name: $($proc.ProcessName), Path: $($proc.Path)" -ForegroundColor Red
$found = $true
}
if (-not $found) {
Write-Host "[+] No high-risk processes currently active." -ForegroundColor Green
}
Write-Host "\n[+] Check Complete. If alerts were triggered, initiate Incident Response protocols immediately." -ForegroundColor Cyan
Remediation
The 50% increase in encryption attacks requires a shift in defensive posture. Patching specific vulnerabilities is insufficient if the entry vector is a trusted supply chain partner.
-
Implement Zero Trust Network Access (ZTNA) for Vendors:
- Revoke persistent VPN access for third-party vendors. Replace it with just-in-time (JIT) access that expires automatically.
- Enforce MFA for all vendor connections, specifically phishing-resistant FIDO2 keys.
-
Immutable Backups:
- Ensure backups are air-gapped or immutable (WORM storage). This is the only reliable defense against encryption-based attacks targeting backup repositories.
-
Supply Chain Auditing:
- Audit all software update mechanisms. Ensure that updates pull from signed, trusted repositories and that the signature validation is enforced strictly before execution.
-
Disable Unused Native Tools:
- Via Application Control (AppLocker/Windows Defender Application Control), restrict the use of
vssadmin.exe,cipher.exe, andwmic.exeto only specific administrator accounts. Prevent standard users and service accounts from invoking these tools.
- Via Application Control (AppLocker/Windows Defender Application Control), restrict the use of
-
Vendor Risk Management:
- Request evidence of cybersecurity posture from all critical suppliers. If they are breached, you are breached.
Related Resources
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